Delayed Monsoon Withdrawal Affects Rainfall

Monsoon and Rainfall Summary (2025)

1. Monsoon Season Overview:

   • The southwest monsoon season officially ended, but the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts rain to continue into October over northeast, central, and peninsular India due to delayed withdrawal.
   • All-India rainfall from June to September 2025 recorded at 937.2 mm, representing an 8% surplus.
   • This monsoon season marked the 5th wettest since 2001 and the second consecutive year of above-normal rainfall.

2. Forecast and Weather Patterns:

   • A well-marked low-pressure area near Kutch is expected to bring rain to Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra until Thursday.
   • Another low-pressure system anticipated to develop over the north Bay of Bengal, resulting in rain across Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
   • Further, the monsoon withdrawal line currently extends through Veraval, Bharuch, Ujjain, Jhansi, and Shahjahanpur.

3. Future Weather Conditions:

   • Overall monsoon withdrawal expected to be delayed, likely not completed before October 12, 2025.
   • Expected above-normal rainfall during October across most regions except Jammu & Kashmir, southern Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, attributable to the delayed withdrawal and development of rain-bearing systems.

4. Temperature Projections:

   • Day temperatures in October are likely to remain below normal, while nighttime temperatures will be warmer due to cloudy conditions.

5. ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Conditions:

   • Current neutral ENSO conditions expected to transition into a weak La Niña phase, with implications for global weather patterns. However, this phenomenon is predicted to last only a short duration before reverting to neutral conditions.

6. Geographical Impact of Northeast Monsoon:

   • Northeast monsoon typically affects regions including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry, and south-interior Karnataka.
   • The regular onset date for the northeast monsoon is around October 20.

7. Judicial and Environmental Considerations:

   • Although various rain-related disasters affected parts of the country, rainfall distribution was generally favorable in both spatial and temporal dimensions.

This summary captures key observations and forecasts regarding India's monsoon patterns for the year 2025, alongside relevant weather phenomena and their implications, reflecting both current climate conditions and potential environmental impacts.