Delimitation's Impact on Population Governance

Constitutional References

• Article 81 of the Indian Constitution: Mandates that the distribution of seats among States in Parliament and State Legislatures should be based on population, maintaining a consistent ratio across States as much as practicable.
• 84th Constitutional Amendment Act, 2002: Extended the freeze on the number of seats in Parliament and State Legislatures from 2000 to 2026, aiming to motivate States towards population stabilization in light of family planning programs.

Census and Delimitation

• Census 2026: Expected to prompt a delimitation exercise, with results declared by October 2028, after which the Delimitation Commission (DC) will reallocate seats.
• 2029 Lok Sabha Elections: Will follow based on outcomes from the impending Census.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

• TFR Requirement for Population Stabilization: Set at 2.1 births per woman.
• NFHS Findings:
  • 2005: Nine States achieved or were below the TFR of 2.1.
  • 2021: Most major States reached this TFR, except for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Manipur.
• Mean TFR across States:
  • States below national mean: 1.64
  • States above national mean: 2.38

Delimitation Exercise Proposal

• Proposal to incorporate population stabilization efforts in seat allocation post-2026 Census.
• Suggesting a Demographic Performance (DemPer) principle for seat allocation based on:
  • 10% weightage for early achievers (TFR of 2.1 or less before 2005).
  • 90% weightage for the rate of decline in TFR from 2005 to 2021.

Governance and Fair Federalism

• Predicted increase in overall seats while rewarding populous States and maintaining share for States that improve population control.
• Federal Stability Consideration: Emphasizes the importance of both democratic equality and regional representation to preserve the integrity of the Union.

Lok Sabha Size Considerations

• Current average population per Lok Sabha seat in 1971: Between 10 and 11.1 lakh; current population nearly 1.4 billion.
• Future Lok Sabha size recommendation: Should not exceed 700 seats to allow for democratic deliberation and representation.

Significance

• Application of the DemPer principle: Aims to balance representation based on both demographics and performance in population stabilization.
• Focus on ensuring fair representation across diverse States, recognizing their distinct socio-demographic challenges.

This summary outlines the crucial aspects concerning India's electoral system, focusing on constitutional mandates, demographic considerations, and the proposed changes to seat allocation methodologies following the upcoming Census.