GDP Growth Estimates for 2025-26

Economic Growth Projections and Data Summary (FY 2025-26)

1. GDP Growth Estimates:

   • Q2 FY 2025-26 (July-September):
     • Real GDP Growth Rate: Estimated at 8.2%.
     • Nominal GDP Growth Rate: Estimated at 8.7%.
   • Comparison:
     • Q2 FY 2024-25: Real GDP growth rate was 5.6%.

2. Sectoral Contributions to Growth:

   • Secondary Sector:
     • Real GDP growth at 8.1%; Manufacturing contributed 9.1% and Construction 7.2%.
   • Tertiary Sector:
     • Growth at 9.2%, with Finance, Real Estate, and Business Services leading at 10.2%.
   • Agricultural and Associated Sectors: Growth slowed to 3.5%.
   • Utilities Sector (Electricity, Gas, Water Supply): Growth at 4.4%.

3. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE):

   • Growth Rate: 7.9% in Q2 FY 2025-26, up from 6.4% in the previous fiscal year.

4. Half-Yearly Overview (April-September FY 2025-26):

   • Real GDP: Estimated at 96.52 lakh crore INR, indicating an 8.0% growth from 89.35 lakh crore INR in FY 2024-25.
   • Nominal GDP: Estimated at 171.30 lakh crore INR, showing an 8.8% rise from 157.48 lakh crore INR.

5. Real GVA and Sector Growth Estimates:

   • Real GVA (Gross Value Added) Q2 FY 2025-26: Estimated at 44.77 lakh crore INR (8.1% growth).
   • Sectoral Structure of GVA:
     • Primary Sector: Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing.
     • Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, Electricity, Water supply, Construction.
     • Tertiary Sector: Services including Trade, Transport, Finance, Real Estate.

6. Methodology for Economic Estimates:

   • Benchmarking Methodology: Based on previous fiscal year’s performance with sector-specific indicators.
   • Sources include data from various ministries, private agencies, industrial production indices, GST collections, financial performance of listed companies, etc.
   • Regular updates are made based on new data sources and revisions.

7. Statistical Office (NSO) Role:

   • Conducts quarterly GDP estimates and sets the benchmark for national accounts, currently in the process of updating the base year from FY 2011-12 to FY 2022-23.
   • Upcoming quarterly GDP estimate to be released on 27.02.2026.

Key Takeaways:

• The robust growth projections for FY 2025-26 indicate a recovering economy, driven primarily by increased consumption, manufacturing, and service sectors.
• The government’s fiscal policies and the ongoing adjustments in data frameworks will significantly shape future economic assessments.