GDP Growth Estimates for 2025-26

Economic Data Summary for FY 2025-26

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimates:

• Real GDP Growth Rate: Estimated at 7.4% for FY 2025-26, up from 6.5% in FY 2024-25.
• Nominal GDP Growth Rate: Projected at 8.0% for FY 2025-26.

Key Sectoral Growth Estimates (at Constant Prices):

• Services Sector: Anticipated growth rate of 7.3%.

  • Financial, Real Estate, and Professional Services: Estimated growth of 9.9%.
  • Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication, and Broadcasting: Estimated growth of 7.5%.

• Secondary Sector (Manufacturing and Construction): Projected growth of 7.0%.

• Agriculture and Allied Activities: Expected growth rate of 3.1%.

• Utilities (Electricity, Gas, Water Supply): Estimated growth rate of 2.1%.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE):

• Estimated growth rate of 7.0% for FY 2025-26.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF):

• Projected growth of 7.8% for FY 2025-26, up from 7.1% in FY 2024-25.

Financial Projections:

• Estimated Real GDP: ₹201.90 lakh crore for FY 2025-26.
• Interim Nominal GDP Estimate for FY 2024-25: ₹330.68 lakh crore.
• Estimated GVA (Gross Value Added): ₹184.50 lakh crore for FY 2025-26, up from ₹171.87 lakh crore in FY 2024-25.
• Estimated Nominal GVA: ₹323.48 lakh crore for FY 2025-26.

Methodology:

• Estimates based on a benchmark indicator method, utilizing prior year's data and various economic indicators.
• Key indicators sourced from:
  • Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
  • Quarterly financial results of listed companies
  • Agriculture Ministry estimates for major crops
  • Various economic activities, such as transport statistics, bank deposits, and GST collections.

Data Sources:

• Information consolidated from multiple ministries and departments, including those related to commerce, finance, and agriculture.
• Future GDP estimates will be revised as the base year for national accounts shifts from FY 2011-12 to FY 2022-23.

Constitutional and Policy Context:

• The economic projections align with the Directive Principles of State Policy (DPSPs) under Article 39 and 47 of the Indian Constitution, which advocate for the state's responsibility to ensure a healthy and prosperous economy.

Upcoming Milestones:

• The second advance estimates for GDP for FY 2025-26 to be released on February 27, 2026, with new quarterly GDP estimates based on the revised base year.

Conclusion:

These estimates reflect a stable growth trajectory for the Indian economy, underpinning the crucial role of the service sector, government spending, and private investment as key drivers of economic activity moving forward.