India's Climate Goals and Challenges

Climate Commitments and Performance: India's Targets in the Paris Agreement

Background

• The Paris Agreement (2015) established frameworks for countries to set Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

India's Achievements

• India committed to ensuring 40% of its power capacity would derive from non-fossil sources by 2030, achieving this in 2021, nine years early.
• India also vowed to reduce carbon emissions intensity by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030, meeting this target with a decade to spare.
• In 2022, India increased its NDC to 50% clean energy capacity by 2030, achieved five years ahead of schedule in 2025.

Current and Future Targets

• March 2023: India pledges to reach 60% clean energy capacity by 2035, despite achieving nearly 53% as of February 2025.
• Another pledge includes reducing emissions intensity by 47% by 2035, representing a slight increase from the previous target.

Concerns with Targets

• Critics argue India's pledges lack ambition and are not aligned with keeping global warming below 1.5 °C.
• Emissions intensity is viewed as a misleading metric; as economic output increases, emissions can rise despite reduced intensity.

Coal and Energy Concerns

• India plans to increase coal capacity to 307 gigawatts by 2035, a 46% increase compared to 2025, while coal currently generates over two-thirds of its electricity.
• The reliance on coal may hinder efforts to meet climate objectives, with potential approval of coal plants in this decade leading to operations extending into the 2060s.

Energy Imports and Costs

• Approximately 88% of India's crude oil is imported, highlighting vulnerabilities, especially amid geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices (e.g., Strait of Hormuz crisis).
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates transitioning to clean energy could potentially save India $1.4 trillion in oil import costs over two decades.

Innovations and Economical Practices

• Madhya Pradesh achieved the lowest solar power rate of 2.70 INR per kilowatt-hour recently.
• Competitive bids for clean energy revealed fixed contract prices lower than those for coal, making renewables economically advantageous over time.

Recommendations for Future Ambitions

1. Set definitive years for peaking power sector emissions and establish absolute emission limits.
2. Shift focus from installed capacity to actual clean electricity generation metrics, similar to Chile's successful renewables law.
3. Invest in grid infrastructure to facilitate clean power delivery, as insufficient transmission capacity has previously limited renewable energy output.

International and Global Context

• The UN has identified the failure to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, calling for mass carbon removal strategies amid rising emissions.
• India remains the largest emitter within the Paris Agreement without absolute emissions targets, contrasting with commitments from other major economies, including China.

Conclusion

• India’s progress in climate commitments demonstrates a commendable track record, but future targets need to be more ambitious to align with global climate goals. The focus should be on ensuring grid capability for clean energy integration and implementing absolute emissions limits rather than solely relying on emissions intensity metrics.