Insights on Stubble Burning Measurements

Summary of Stubble Burning Data Analysis and Government Response

Key Findings:

• Fire Counts vs. Burnt Area: The Environment Ministry's claim of a 92% reduction in fire counts for Punjab and 90% for Haryana since 2021 may be misleading, as data from the iForest study indicates only about a 30% reduction in the burnt area from 31,500 sq km in 2022 to 19,700 sq km in 2025.

• Satellite Data Limitations: Current estimates rely on data from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, specifically using NASA's MODIS and VIIRS satellites. These satellites track active fires but miss numerous smaller fires, leading to underestimations in emissions and air quality dynamics.

• Independent Analysis: iForest used data from the Sentinel satellite and Meteosat satellites to provide a more accurate analysis. The Sentinel satellite, while periodically providing burnt area data, shows that evening burning is prevalent, which is not detected by polar satellites due to their fixed observation times.

Judicial Oversight:

• The Supreme Court has mandated a thorough investigation into evening fire counts, reflecting judicial concern over the accuracy of stubble burning data provided by the government.

Policy Implications:

• Mischaracterizations in fire counts have implications for policymaking, air quality regulations, and environmental interventions targeting air pollution, particularly in Delhi.

Additional Insights:

• A recent study by ISRO's Space Applications Centre echoed the findings of the iForest report, noting a shift in the timing of stubble burning to evenings to evade detection by polar satellites.

Challenges in Metrics:

• Current methodologies for estimating stubble burning rely heavily on satellite technology and have significant limitations due to temporal and spatial resolutions of available satellite data.

• The continued reassessment of data collection methods is essential for forming effective environmental policies and strategies to manage stubble burning.

Conclusion: The findings illustrate a critical need for improved data collection methodologies and transparency in reporting, with the understanding that the true contribution of stubble burning to air pollution may be much higher than currently reported (estimated between 5-10%). It calls for more comprehensive research and updated methodologies in satellite data analysis to aid in policy formulation.