Missile Warfare Impact on India-China Relations

Summary of Key Points

Missile Warfare and Strategic Implications

• Missiles are changing the nature of warfare, making conflicts quicker and more politically driven.
• China has over 200 conventional missile launchers deployed opposite India, significantly enhancing its missile capability.
• Conventional missiles are perceived as deterrents by India, while China uses them as tools for political coercion and military aggression.

Key Missile Systems

• China deploys several missile types:
  • DF-15B, DF-16, DF-21C: Target military installations along disputed borders.
  • DF-26: Capable of hitting deep within Indian territory (high-value targets).
  • Hypersonic missiles (DF-100 and CJ-1000): Present a major threat due to their speed and reduced warning time for potential strikes.

Vulnerabilities and India's Response

• India lacks adequate defense against hypersonic missiles, which compromises its strategic depth.
• Indian missile capabilities include Agni series, Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile (LR-LACM), Nirbhay, and BrahMos, but there are limitations in range, diversity, and integration.
• The Indian military faces challenges in developing a cohesive rocket force that can effectively retaliate against missile strikes.

Strategic Recommendations for India

1. Rocket Force Development:

   • Establish a rocket force under the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) to enhance operational effectiveness.
   • Expand the inventory of Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) and Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs), including Agni variants.

2. Doctrinal Changes:

   • Shift to a counter-value strike doctrine; focus on a unified target list that transcends service-specific targets.
   • Grant pre-designated launch authority to the rocket force to mitigate risks at conflict initiation.

3. Technological and Industrial Growth:

   • Increase private sector participation in missile development to overcome dependence issues on foreign suppliers.
   • Invest in R&D to enhance capabilities in air propulsion systems, semiconductors, and materials.

4. Interim Measures:

   • Disperse Indian Air Force (IAF) assets and fortify airbases to limit adversarial missile effectiveness.
   • Optimize air defense systems to force adversaries to waste missiles on defensive targets instead of critical infrastructure.
   • Strengthen long-range conventional strike capabilities to make Chinese assets in Tibet and Xinjiang vulnerable.
   • Expand satellite surveillance to track mobile launchers, particularly DF-26 systems, improving early response capabilities.

Implications for Bilateral Relations

• If India does not enhance its deterrent capabilities, it risks being seen as unable to protect itself, potentially inviting aggression.
• The strategic balance in the region will depend significantly on India’s ability to demonstrate credible defense options without escalating to a nuclear confrontation.

Conclusion

• India must urgently reassess its military strategy, focusing on strengthening its conventional missile capabilities to deter potential aggressions from China.
• Building a comprehensive rocket force capable of engaging in modern warfare scenarios is crucial for national security.