Monsoon Forecast for June 2026

Summary of Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for June-September 2026

Rainfall Forecast:

1. Quantitative Prediction:

   • The southwest monsoon's seasonal rainfall is expected to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±4%.
   • The LPA for India (1971-2020) is approximately 87 cm.

2. Regional Predictions:

   • Northeast India: Rainfall likely to be within 94-106% of LPA (normal).
   • Central & Southern Peninsular India: Expected to receive less than 94% of LPA.
   • Northwest India: Expected to receive less than 92% of LPA.
   • Monsoon Core Zone: Likely to experience below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA).

3. Monthly Forecast for June 2026:

   • Overall rainfall is expected to be less than 92% of LPA.
   • Most regions, except parts of Northwest and Northeast India, will likely experience below-normal rainfall.

Temperature Forecast:

1. Maximum Temperatures:

   • Most regions are expected to have above-normal maximum temperatures, except for some areas in Central, Northwest, and Eastern India where lower temperatures are anticipated.

2. Minimum Temperatures:

   • Similarly, most areas are likely to have above-normal minimum temperatures, with exceptions in Northwest, Central, and some southern regions.

3. Heat Waves:

   • Increased likelihood of heat waves in states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, and parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.
   • Rajasthan and Jharkhand may experience fewer heat wave days.

Climate Patterns:

1. ENSO Status:

   • The Equatorial Pacific region is transitioning from a neutral ENSO state to an El Niño condition, which may impact the monsoon.

2. IOD Status:

   • The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral and expected to remain so during the monsoon season.

Implications:

• Below-average rainfall could pose challenges for agriculture, water availability, and ecosystem stability, potentially leading to droughts and increased heat stress.
• Recommendations include efficient water resource management, promoting water conservation practices, and strengthening drought monitoring and early warning systems.

Government Initiatives:

• The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has been employing a new strategy since 2021 for operational long-term forecasts of rainfall and temperature, utilizing a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system.
• Regular updates on weather forecasts are provided to assist in preparation and response planning for extreme weather events.

Conclusion:

The forecast indicates a likelihood of below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season of 2026, with significant regional variations and potential heat waves. Preparedness measures are essential to mitigate adverse impacts on agriculture, public health, and essential services.