IMD Forecasts Dry Monsoon 2026

Monsoon Forecasting and Impact in India

1. Monsoon Data and Forecasts:

   • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides forecasts in April and May before the monsoon.
   • The forecast predicted a “below normal” monsoon rainfall of 90% to 95% of average rainfall but later revealed that the actual rainfall was significantly deficient.
   • Final monsoon rainfall recorded was 759 mm, which is 87% of the normal 869 mm.
   • Monthly breakdown:
     • June: 65% of normal (forecast: 92%)
     • July: 95% of normal (forecast: below 94%)
     • August: 84% of normal (aligned with forecast <94%)
     • September: 92.4% of normal (forecast <91%)
   • Northeast India recorded its driest monsoon since 1901 with a 26% deficiency.
   • Southern and central India experienced rainfall deficits of 23% and met expectations for the most part.

2. El Niño Influence:

   • The current meteorological situation is affected by one of the strongest El Niño events, which historically suppresses monsoon rains.
   • Climate change complicates this scenario; Western disturbances have been bringing more rain while southern regions are increasing vulnerable to El Niño effects.

3. Agricultural Impacts:

   • The kharif crop sowing was 16% lower compared to the previous year by July 10 but improved to under 2% by early September.
   • Drought declarations: Karnataka has declared drought in over 100 taluks, and Maharashtra in 265 out of 358 taluks.
   • The national deficit stands at about 12%, below the 20% threshold defined by the Centre for declaring an “agricultural drought.”

4. Government Policies and Support:

   • The Cabinet raised the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat by ₹25 per quintal and for mustard by ₹413, indicating encouragement for crop diversification strategies in response to changing climatic conditions.

5. Future Predictions:

   • The IMD anticipates a continuation of below-normal rainfall across most regions from October to December, which may further affect soil moisture and reservoir levels.

6. Suggestions for Improvement:

   • IMD's forecasting models warrant enhancement to avoid underestimating deficiencies in rainfall predictions. Improved regional forecasting could better prepare farmers and stakeholders.

7. Conclusion:

   • The observed discrepancies in rainfall forecasting underscore the challenges faced by meteorological departments against the backdrop of climate change. Enhanced communication and reporting accuracy are critical for mitigating agricultural risks associated with erratic monsoon patterns.

Key Takeaways:

• Understanding the relationships between climate factors like El Niño, regional rainfall patterns, and agricultural outcomes is essential for future planning and governance.
• The need for robust forecasting systems and responsive agricultural policies is critical in light of climate volatility impacting food security and economic stability.