IMD Initiatives for Climate Forecasting

Summary of Initiatives to Strengthen Climate Forecasting in India

The Government of India, through the India Meteorological Department (IMD), has initiated various programs to enhance climate forecasting, particularly for agriculture, under the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS). These initiatives facilitate timely weather information to aid farmers' decision-making, thereby minimizing crop damage due to adverse climate conditions.

Key Initiatives and Programs:

• Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS):

  • Launched to provide weather forecast-based operational Agrometeorological Advisory Services (AAS).
  • Involves collaborations with prominent organizations like ICAR, SAUs, IITs, and NGOs.
  • Aims to help farmers manage agricultural activities effectively, capitalize on favorable weather, and minimize losses due to unexpected weather variations.

• Agromet Field Units (AMFUs):

  • 130 operational units across 127 agroclimatic zones.
  • Provide medium-range weather forecasts (up to five days) on different parameters such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, and wind conditions.
  • Issue biweekly Agromet Advisories every Tuesday and Friday to assist farmers in decision-making.

• Dissemination Methods:

  • Multi-channel delivery through print, electronic media, SMS alerts, and government portals.
  • The Kisan Portal sends alerts during extreme weather events, supplemented by digital applications like 'Meghdoot' and 'Mausam' for location-specific forecasts.
  • Integration with state government IT platforms for broader accessibility of information.

• Panchayat-Level Weather Forecasts:

  • Introduction of localized forecasts accessible through digital platforms (e.g., e-Gramswaraj, Meri Panchayat app).
  • Coverage of nearly all Gram Panchayats in India for enhanced localized weather information dissemination.

Research and Climate Change Studies:

• The Ministry of Earth Sciences has established the Centre for Climate Change Research at IITM.

• Detailed assessments on climate changes, such as the report “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region”, highlight that:

  • The global average temperature has risen by approximately 1°C since pre-industrial times.
  • Predictions estimate a potential increase of 5°C by the end of the 21st century if current greenhouse gas emission trends persist.

• Specific findings include:

  • India's average temperature has increased by about 0.7°C from 1901 to 2018.
  • Projections forecast an increase of 4.4°C by the end of the century under the RCP8.5 scenario.
  • The frequency of summer heatwaves could increase by 3 to 4 times relative to the baseline period.

• The summer monsoon precipitation has decreased by around 6% since 1951, reflecting a worrying trend towards frequent dry spells and intense wet events.

Agromet Advisory Enhancements:

• Advisories include targeted recommendations tailored to specific crops, focusing on crop varieties that are drought-tolerant, pest-resistant, and flood-resistant.
• Recommendations will also outline practices on sowing and harvesting dates and promote water-efficient irrigation techniques.

Data Accessibility and Climate Projections:

• Climate change scenarios and projections developed by IITM using the IITM Earth System Model are publicly available.
• The IMD and Ministry of Earth Sciences facilitate public data dissemination through various dedicated platforms.

This extensive framework of initiatives serves as a robust mechanism to improve climate resilience in agriculture, enhancing farmers' capacity to adapt to increasingly erratic weather patterns due to climate change.

Important Sentences:

• The GKMS program enhances weather forecasting for agriculture in India.
• Agromet Field Units provide biweekly advisories to assist farmers.
• Localized weather forecasts are now accessible at the Panchayat level.
• Climate change studies indicate a significant rise in global and Indian temperatures.
• Projections show a potential temperature rise of 4.4°C by the end of the 21st century in India.
• Agromet advisories include recommendations for drought-tolerant and pest-resistant crops.
• Public access to climate data and forecasts is significantly improved through digital platforms.