India's Upcoming Climate Commitments

Summary of India’s Energy Transition Strategy and NDCs

International Commitments:

• India is required to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement covering the period until 2035.

Key Targets for Energy Transition:

1. Emissions Intensity of GDP:

   • Target: Reduce emissions intensity by 45% compared to 2005 levels by 2030 and set a new target to reduce by 65% by 2035.
   • Projected GDP growth: 7.6% over this period, resulting in total emissions peaking around 2035.

2. Non-Fossil Fuel Power Generation:

   • Goal: Increase capacity of non-fossil fuel-based power to 80% of total generation by 2035 (currently at 50% target for 2030).
   • Total electricity generation capacity to reach 1,600 GW by 2035, with 1,200 GW coming from solar and wind power.
   • The share of electricity from renewables to rise from 13.5% to 50% by 2035.
   • Energy storage capacity projection: increase from <1 GW today to 170 GW by 2035.

3. Coal Generation:

   • Phasing down unabated coal-based generation is vital to achieving net-zero by 2070.
   • Current coal capacity is 255 GW; expected to peak at 293 GW by 2030, then decline to 230 GW by 2040.
   • No new unabated coal plants to be commissioned post-2030.

4. Electrification of Key Sectors:

   • Aim for nearly 100% electrification of railway traction by 2035 and 50% electric buses in urban fleets.
   • Transition to 100% electric sales in three-wheeler category anticipated.

5. Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS):

   • Operational from April 2026; to be included in NDCs with a potential for expanded coverage over time.
   • Initial emission intensity targets will be lax, with future tightening aligned with net-zero goals.

6. Electricity Pricing and Grid Management:

   • High renewable share to require reforms in electricity pricing including variable price mechanisms.
   • Introduction of time-of-day tariffs to align consumer pricing with generation variability.

7. Investment Requirements:

   • Estimated investment of $62 billion annually from 2026 to 2035 (about 0.84% of GDP per annum).
   • 80% of this funding to come from domestic sources, with 20% anticipated from international flows, supported by Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs).

Implementation Framework:

• Recommend revival of the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change to coordinate actions nationally and facilitate a unified approach among stakeholders.

Conclusion:

• The outlined strategy is positioned as a comprehensive plan toward achieving India's climate commitment while addressing economic and job market transitions in coal-dependent states, incorporating stakeholder engagement for effective policy execution.